WTHR, the local NBC affiliate in Indianapolis, commissioned a recent poll showing Republican challenger Eric Dickerson with a 45-42% lead over Rep. Julia Carson. And there was much sputtering in the Hoosier Blogosphere:
This must be an interesting day over at county Democratic headquarters. With that party preparing for historic wins across the nation and the state, Democrats face big trouble in the two biggest races here in Marion County -- at least for now. Perhaps this is a sign that the Marion County Democratic Party should start getting serious,
If the poll turns out to be less flawed than most, it would reflect what I've been thinking for a while: The race between Dickerson and Carson is narrower than most people think.
Evidence of this can be seen in the dramatic event that has turned this race into the nastiness that it is . . .
Then there is another factor that few actually consider in any of this: That the Black vote on which Carson's success has been based no longer consist of Center Township's poor African-Americans. Now that the district consists of middle-class Blacks in Pike, Lawrence and Washington townships -- many of whom are college-educated professionals and homeowners whose interests are often more aligned with White middle-class voters -- its harder for Carson to simply play on racial bigotry, especially when voters are thinking about that good old green . . .
The poll found that by a 49%-42% margin, voters in the 7th District disapproved of her job performance. That's devastating for a 10-year veteran of Congress.
Given the cash disparities, I do not think that Dickerson can survive a last-minute push by Carson's campaign. I also do not think that the undecideds will break for him given the decidedly anti-Republican character of this election year, meaning that his being ahead is probably misleading.
The character of the year is the crux of Dickerson's problem, I think. If this were a neutral or Republican year, he would have a much better chance. But this is not, and the Republicans . . . have more pressing races to focus upon . . .
Dickerson does not have the turnout operation in place that Carson does, and that is important in urban and heavily-Democratic (and minority) areas of Indianapolis.
- He also agrees with Jen Wagner that the polls don't seem to pass the smell test.
- But AI says that Amos Brown's reaction to the poll's methodology belies a less-than-sober skepticism:
If Brown's tirade this afternoon is any indication, Dickerson better be prepared for the worst two weeks of his life. It is clear that Carson and friends like Brown will do everything conceivable over the next two weeks to personally destroy him . . .
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